One of the world's most dangerous pursuits isn't great white shark wrestling or tsunami surfing - it's predicting the future. Just look at past attempts to envisage how we live today. You'd find that most have been very wide of the mark.
Having some idea about how things are likely to shape up is, of course, a fundamental aspect of investment decisions. There's always only a slim chance of being correct. That, however, hasn't deterred that most upmarket of talking shops, the World Economic Forum's Global Agenda Council (WEFGAC) from taking a stab at it. The Council published recently what it believes to be the top 10 emerging technologies of 2014 that could reshape the society of the future.
The Council claims the potential breakthroughs 'show the boundless potential for technology to have a positive impact on society, from finding cleaner energy to new cures for disease'. Like some form of financial services advertisement, this is followed by a qualification, 'For these gains to be realized, we need the right regulatory frameworks, strategic alliances among innovators and market leaders, investment capital, as well as greater public awareness'. No s*** Sherlock. They might have as well included the necessity of world peace and the goodwill of all mankind.
For those of you who have been around technology and innovation for more than a few minutes, many of the predictions will be familiar. These have been touted for years as the future or cure for something. Still, it's worth taking a closer look at the list at least to separate the stuff from the puff.
1. The idea of body-adapted wearable electronics worn on the body or embedded in clothes. Such devices can track information, like stress level or heart rate and give people real-time feedback about their health. In postulating this gem, the Council appears not overly familiar with the products of Suunto, Polar and a host of other manufacturers. But, hey, it'll make another story for the Daily Mail around next year's London Fashion Week.
2. Nanostructured carbon composites. That technology apparently offers the prospect of cars being as much as 40 per cent lighter, stronger and easier to recycle, whilst offering the obligatory huge energy savings. Clearly, a much needed innovation in lightweight automotive materials, as the hapless owner of this bored border collie spaniel cross dog and Aston Martin found out recently.
3. The prospect of mining metals from sea or waste water. Even though the practice has been around for decades, new chemical processes are making large-scale desalination economically realistic for the first time, the Council thinks. It'll only be a matter of time until someone again suggests combining it with one of the other great unexploited but cyclically returning technologies - electricity from Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC).
4. Electricity grid-scale storage. The innovation is highlighted as allowing to save the surplus energy from fluctuating renewable sources such as sun and wind. Presumably it also means networks do not need to be over-engineered to peak demand levels.
5. Lithium-ion batteries based on tiny silicon nanowires. Such batteries could have a longer life, charge more quickly and hold up to three times the power of existing devices. Really useable electric cars will become more realistic and new generations of mobile devices could emerge as a result.
6. Screenless displays. A 3D image projected onto an object or into space can convey information that a 2D image cannot, such as a projection of a keyboard on a desk. Such projections are apparently close to becoming a practical reality. Now, where have we seen that one before and how many times? Cue: pictures of people in shiny costumes and wigs, staring entranced at coffee tables.
7. Using big data and specialised machine-learning algorithms. Building detailed and predictive models about people and their behaviours is now a reality. This idea of 'quantified self' can help in areas such as medical diagnosis and urban planning. There are, however, some more worrying applications a certain Mr. Snowden might want to tell us about.
8. Brain-computer interfaces. As technology advances, such interfaces could make it possible for people to operate prosthetic limbs using only their thoughts. It's very worthy-sounding, though I think we are going to have to be more imaginative about mass market applications before that one excites more than the BBC.
9/10. Human microbiome technology and RNA-based therapeutics. Substantially less puffy and with broader application is human microbiome technology, seen as an important source of treatment for serious diseases as well as for improving health. RNA-based therapeutics are based on the fact that like DNA, RNA plays an important part in protein synthesis and the transmission of genetic information. As such, RNA-based therapeutics could mean a new generation of drugs that could help find new treatments for cancer and other infectious diseases.
There you have it. Substantial business wheat or ephemeral PR chaff? Safe bet or huge risk? You decide. After all that's what entrepreneurialism is all about.
The Council claims the potential breakthroughs 'show the boundless potential for technology to have a positive impact on society, from finding cleaner energy to new cures for disease'. Like some form of financial services advertisement, this is followed by a qualification, 'For these gains to be realized, we need the right regulatory frameworks, strategic alliances among innovators and market leaders, investment capital, as well as greater public awareness'. No s*** Sherlock. They might have as well included the necessity of world peace and the goodwill of all mankind.
For those of you who have been around technology and innovation for more than a few minutes, many of the predictions will be familiar. These have been touted for years as the future or cure for something. Still, it's worth taking a closer look at the list at least to separate the stuff from the puff.
1. The idea of body-adapted wearable electronics worn on the body or embedded in clothes. Such devices can track information, like stress level or heart rate and give people real-time feedback about their health. In postulating this gem, the Council appears not overly familiar with the products of Suunto, Polar and a host of other manufacturers. But, hey, it'll make another story for the Daily Mail around next year's London Fashion Week.
2. Nanostructured carbon composites. That technology apparently offers the prospect of cars being as much as 40 per cent lighter, stronger and easier to recycle, whilst offering the obligatory huge energy savings. Clearly, a much needed innovation in lightweight automotive materials, as the hapless owner of this bored border collie spaniel cross dog and Aston Martin found out recently.
3. The prospect of mining metals from sea or waste water. Even though the practice has been around for decades, new chemical processes are making large-scale desalination economically realistic for the first time, the Council thinks. It'll only be a matter of time until someone again suggests combining it with one of the other great unexploited but cyclically returning technologies - electricity from Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC).
4. Electricity grid-scale storage. The innovation is highlighted as allowing to save the surplus energy from fluctuating renewable sources such as sun and wind. Presumably it also means networks do not need to be over-engineered to peak demand levels.
5. Lithium-ion batteries based on tiny silicon nanowires. Such batteries could have a longer life, charge more quickly and hold up to three times the power of existing devices. Really useable electric cars will become more realistic and new generations of mobile devices could emerge as a result.
6. Screenless displays. A 3D image projected onto an object or into space can convey information that a 2D image cannot, such as a projection of a keyboard on a desk. Such projections are apparently close to becoming a practical reality. Now, where have we seen that one before and how many times? Cue: pictures of people in shiny costumes and wigs, staring entranced at coffee tables.
7. Using big data and specialised machine-learning algorithms. Building detailed and predictive models about people and their behaviours is now a reality. This idea of 'quantified self' can help in areas such as medical diagnosis and urban planning. There are, however, some more worrying applications a certain Mr. Snowden might want to tell us about.
8. Brain-computer interfaces. As technology advances, such interfaces could make it possible for people to operate prosthetic limbs using only their thoughts. It's very worthy-sounding, though I think we are going to have to be more imaginative about mass market applications before that one excites more than the BBC.
9/10. Human microbiome technology and RNA-based therapeutics. Substantially less puffy and with broader application is human microbiome technology, seen as an important source of treatment for serious diseases as well as for improving health. RNA-based therapeutics are based on the fact that like DNA, RNA plays an important part in protein synthesis and the transmission of genetic information. As such, RNA-based therapeutics could mean a new generation of drugs that could help find new treatments for cancer and other infectious diseases.
There you have it. Substantial business wheat or ephemeral PR chaff? Safe bet or huge risk? You decide. After all that's what entrepreneurialism is all about.
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